The BCS Crystal Ball  

Posted by Frazier

So who's going to play for the title? Who deserves it? Will the game end up sucking?

Well, friggin read the post!

The Team: LSU
The Path: Win out (Arkansas, SEC title game).
Chances to get there: Gotta like it. Only thing standing between them and the Super Dome is themselves.
Why they should play for the title: Let's see, the best team from the best conference? The fact that they play defense, run the ball, pass the ball, and have good coaching and special teams. The only high-ranked team to live up to expectations. We thought they'd be one of the best and most talented in the country. They delivered. -Frazier
Why they shouldn't: Best team from the best conference? Woah there, back that truck up. The SEC has been good, but is it really the slam dunk best conference? Outside of LSU, only the Georgia Bulldogs have less than three losses on the year (and the Tigers have yet to play Mark Richt's squad). The Big 12, on the other hand, boasts 4 teams with under three losses and could potentially end the year with 2 one loss teams. Although Kansas and Missourri play each other this weekend, if Mizzou wins a classic who's to say a rematch shouldn't be in the cards? -Walter
The Verdict: 9 JoePa's (measured in legitimacy and named for the man who could go undefeated and yet not sniff a title) deserving, and so close they can smell it.

The Team: Kansas
The Path: Just win, baby (Missouri, Big 12 title game).
Chances to get there: Tough games, but they control their destiny.
Why they should play for the title: This one's easy. Kansas is the only, repeat ONLY, BCS team to do what what sounds so simple. Namely, win the games you're supposed to win!. LSU lost to an inferior Kentucky team. Ohio State to Illinois. Oklahoma twice to Colorado and Texas Tech. The list goes on. Kansas may not have a signature win, but perhaps more importantly, they are the only team that can claim not to have a signature loss. -Walter
Why they shouldn't: The Big 12 is weak. Winning means they are better than an unknown Mizzou team, and better than either a crummy Texas team, or the Sooners who have only shown they are better than said Mizzou. In any other conference they'd have multiple losses. -Frazier
The Verdict: 9 JoePa's, if you're undefeated in a BCS conference, you deserve it.

The Team: Missouri
The Path: Just win (Kansas, Big 12 Title game).
Chances to get there: No one will hand it to them, but they can take it.
Why they should play for the title: Only loss was to Oklahoma in Norman, not a bad loss, has a good non-conference win (Illinois) and can avenge that loss. Dynamic offense, and beating Kansas is another feather in the cap. -Frazier
Why they shouldn't: The Tigers' "big" win was against Illinois before they became the wrecking ball that stormed Columbus last week. Since then the Tigers have feasted on the incredibly weak Big 12 North, and its still unclear just how impressive a win over Kansas would be. Oh yeah, and that Oklahoma loss is looking worse and worse by the day. -Walter
The Verdict: 8 JoePa's, control their fate, but the conference sucks.

The Team: Ohio St.
The Path: Kansas-Mizzou winner loses in the title game AND, LSU or WVU lose.
Chances to get there: Pretty good. They need some chips to fall, but it's certainly possible.
Why they should play for the title: The Buckeyes are consistent if nothing else. They have a great defense, a steady, conservative offense, and are well coached. They deserve.......ahhhhhh I can't do it. Fuck Ohio State. Fuck Jim Tressell. Thank God Illinois beat them and (hopefully kept them out of the title game). The Big 10 is a joke, surpassed only by OSU's nonconference schedule. If they somehow make the title game I am boycotting it. No joke. -Walter
Why they shouldn't: Because they got blown out in the title game last year, because they lost to Illinois, because the Big 10 sucks, because their non-conference wins (Washington? Please.) are pathetic. -Frazier
The Verdict: 5 JoePa's, ugh, not terribly worthy, not exactly assured.

The Team: West Virginia
The Path: Win out (UConn, Pitt) and Kansas-Mizzou winner loses, OR LSU loses.
Chances to get there: Pretty good. Big 12 title game will be rarified air for either team.
Why they should play for the title: They played one bad game months ago. They have a brilliant coach, a dynamic offense, and a vastly underrated defense. Their only getting better, and the Big East has a lot more depth than anyone gives them credit for. -Frazier
Why they shouldn't: They've beaten who exactly? Their signature win is over Cincinatti (wait is this basketball season), and they got pasted by a South Florida team that is reeling right now. General rule, if you have to beat UConn to win your conference and it's not in basketball, you're conference isn't very good. -Walter
The Verdict: 6 JoePa's, they definitely have a chance, but are they worthy?

The Team: Georgia
The Path: Beat Ga. Tech, have Tenn. lose to Kentucky, beat LSU in SEC title game, Kansas-Mizzou both lose, WVU lose, Arizona St. lose.
Chances to get there: Ok, a long shot for sure. But, if Kentucky wins, they can control part, the Big 12 is reasonable, WVU could def. choke, and ASU may lose Thursday.
Why they should play for the title: You know who the Bulldogs are? They are Colorado from 2001. Remember that Buffalo team that had a couple early losses, then DOMINATED down the stretch tot he point everybody knew they were the 2nd best team in the country but the early losses kept them out of the title game? Remember that? Remember who played for the title that year? It was Nebraska who was demolished by Miami. We all now Colorado would have fared better, but nobody had the guts to put them in the game. -Walter
Why they shouldn't: Remember when they got housed by Tennessee? A loss to a lousy South Carolina team? More proof that the SEC is totally overrated. -Frazier
The Verdict: 4 JoePa's, deserving? Maybe, but near impossible.

The Team: Arizona St.
The Path: Win (USC, Arizona) Have LSU, Kansas-Mizzou, and WVU all lose.
Chances to get there: Once again, it's going to take a miracle.
Why they should play for the title: One-loss to a very good Oregon team in a very underrated (as always) Pac-10? They have the best loss of anybody, and play in the second best conference in America. Frankly, they should be ranked much higher. -Frazier
Why they shouldn't: Talk about overrated, how bout the Pac-10. Arizona State will be hanging their case on wins over (potentially) a USC team that lost to Stanford at home, and a California team that couldn't beat Mission Viejo high school right now. -Walter
The Verdict: 4.5 JoePa's, schedule-wise, worthy as anyone, but still a longshot.

The Team: Oklahoma
The Path: Win (Ok. State, Big 12 title) have LSU lose (not to Georgia), ASU, WVU, and possibly V. Tech lose.
Chances to get there: At least they control a little, but they need a ton of breaks.
Why they should play for the title: Well to be fair they did lose their starting QB in the loss to Texas Tech. And also to be fair, if Oklahoma has a chance to play for the title it means they'd be facing the Buckeyes who they would absolutely destroy. -Walter
Why they shouldn't: Because they suck. Because they JUST lost to Texas Tech. Because their conference is overrated, and all they'll prove is they are better than Mizzou, basically. -Frazier
The Verdict: 3 JoePa's, it's getting dicey.

The Team: Hawai'i
The Path: Let's see... Win out (Boise St. and Washington) have LSU, V. Tech, Kansas-Mizzou lose to a 3-loss Oklahoma (having Texas lose as well), ASU, USC, Georgia, all lose, get some computer love and pray.
Chances to get there: A zillion to one? Two zillion?
Why they should play for the title: You play the schedule you have. Great offense. They are trying non-conference with Washington and UNLV. They deserve a shot. -Frazier
Why they shouldn't: You play the schedule you've got, but you can't schedule all cream puffs and then cry when nobody respects them. Also, we've seen this act before. Hawaii dominates their weak schedule and then comes to the mainland to play a BCS conference school and gets whacked. I ain't buying it and they shouldn't be selling it. -Walter
The Verdict: 1 JoePa. People do love undefeated teams.

The Team: Virginia Tech
The Path: Win (UVA, BC) have LSU (not to Georgia), WVU, Kansas-Mizzou, ASU all lose.
Chances to get there: 2 of those happening is certainly possible, maybe 3, but 4 is a lot. AND, they have to beat my beloved Hoos.
Why they should play for the title: Their only losses were to teams ranked #2 at the time. So what if one of them was at home. Ohio State lost to an unranked team on their turf and they still have a shot. -Walter
Why they shouldn't be there: Because they got absolutely pasted by LSU, and they are totally overrated, as is their mediocre conference. -Frazier.
The Verdict: 2 JoePa's. I mean, it COULD happen, right?

The Team: USC
The Path: Win (ASU, UCLA) have LSU (not to Georgia), WVU, Kansas-Mizzou, Oklahoma (to Ok. State, obviously) V. Tech and possibly Georgia (to Ga. Tech) all lose.
Chances to get there: That was hard to even figure out. Chances are worse.
Why they should play for the title: Winning the second best conference in the country, with a proven coach, an incredibly skilled team, a great defense, and playing hot down the stretch. They would probably beat Ohio St. in that title game. -Frazier
Why they shouldn't be there: Because I'm pretty sure the universe would explode if a team that lost at home to Stanford wound up winning the BCS title game. -Walter
The Verdict: 1 JoePa. Big name, but nothing else.

The Team: Texas
The Path: Win (A&M, Big 12 title) have Oklahoma lose to Ok. State (to get there) have LSU, WVU, ASU, V. Tech, Georgia (to Ga. Tech) and probably USC all lose.
Chances to get there: Um, none.
Why they should play for the title: Because if it gets down to Texas, that means nobody else wanted it. Plus the Buckeyes and the Longhorns played some pretty good games the past two years. It would be interesting TV right.....right? -Walter
Why they shouldn't be there: Because they are terrible, as is their conference, and they haven't beat anyone with a pulse all season. The Big 12 game would be the only half-decent win, but against a team that may be awful. -Frazier.
The Verdict: Half a Pa.

Teams that stand less than no chance:
BC, Florida, Oregon, Virginia. All probably mathematically possible, but so far-fetched we can't even imagine it.

Disclaimer: We think the math on these are correct, but it got pretty complicated.

Note: Yes, the BCS title game, the culminating moment of the entire college football season, will probably end up being terrible. BUT take solace! Years from now we can all look back on the 2007 season fondly because it is, and will always be, the year Notre Dame sucked worse than they've ever sucked before. Some things......are just worth the wait!


Clarett's Syndrome   says 5:53 PM

Have you guys noticed the futures bets for the BCS champion? A smattering:

LSU: 5/4
Missouri: 5/1
West Virginia: 5/1
Ohio State: 6/1
Kansas: 8/1
Arizona State: 10/1
Field (not those teams or Georgia, Oklahoma, or Oregon): 5/1

Don't those lines seem a little crazy? Like you HAVE to be able to make money off of them if you don't think LSU is going to win? Plus, how is the field 5/1?

I'd love to hear comments from you degenerate gamblers.


Interesting point, however, I'd point out that those lines don't seem so absurd when viewed another way. Consider the following:

If you bet $10 on Mizzou to win the NCAA title and get 5:1 odds, you are essentially betting $10 for a chance to win $50 that Mizzou will beat: (1) Kansas, (2) Oklahoma, and (3) the other team in the title game. Where I come from, we call that a parlay. Not only that, but you'd need them to win outright games they'd probably be the underdog in. I can all but guarantee you that a three game parlay with Mizzou winning those games outright would pay more than 5:1.

I think Vegas knows what they are doing.

That said, under this logic that Ohio State number becomes very interesting. OSU, unlike the others on the list, will only have to hope for some luck then win only one game! Food for thought? Maybe. But I couldn't live with myself if I bet on OSU to win the title (more on this to come next week!).

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