Week 6 Picks - Walter  

Posted by Walter

@ Missouri -7 over Nebraska

Crazy as it sounds, this line looks a little low to me. Nebraska has really been struggling this year, especially on defense, and it’s still the first half of the season so Mizzou is still firing on all cylinders. But frankly, this isn’t as much about Mizzou and its Chase Daniel led offense as it is about the horrendous (repeat HORRENDOUS) defense being played by the Cornhuskers. In their last 4 games, the Nebraska defense has given up 376 total yards to Wake Forest, 457 total yards to USC, 610 total yards to Ball State (yes, that Ball State) and 415 total yards to Iowa State. And although USC has more raw talent than Missouri, I think it’s safe to say that none of those 4 teams have been executing as crisply as the Tigers. I simply do not see how the Cornhuskers are going to be able to slow down, much less top Chase Daniel and Co., and while the Nebraska offense will be able to move the ball it simply will not be enough. Lots of points in this one, but the win is never in doubt for Mizzou. Call it Missouri 38, Nebraska 24.

@ Purdue +7 over Ohio State

Remember back in 2002 when the Craig Krenzel led Ohio State team needed a miraculous 4th down bomb to beat a scrappy Purdue team 10-6 en route to a national title? Well this game is going to be nothing like that. Back then Purdue had 10 returning starters on defense and basically smothered the overmatched Buckeye offense. The 2007 Purdue team has all the experience on the offensive side of the ball, and not a whole lot on defense. However, they are playing at home in front of a crowd that is fired up to see them 5-0 for the first time in a while. If the crowd is into the game, that should give the Boilermaker some help on D. On offense, Curtis Painter, Dorien Bryant, and Korey Sheets form one of the best three headed offensive monsters in the nation, and definitely the one you know the least about. Quietly these three have put up some outstanding numbers and could really present some matchup problems for an Ohio State defense that hasn’t been tested yet this year. Unlike the other offenses the Buckeyes have faced, Purdue is very balanced. Purdue will need a perfect game from Painter and I think they get it. Also keep an eye on 6’4’’ senior TE Dustin Keller, who could be in for a big day. Purdue in a shocker 28-27.

Georgia +1 over @ Tennessee

The bottom line is that I’ve learned not to go against Mark Richt on the road in the SEC. His road record at Georgia is absurd, and he has basically made a living going into other team’s home fields and pulling out a win. Expect nothing different on Saturday. While Neyland Stadium is a tough place to play, the Vols stink this year. They just stink. David Cutcliffe and Erik Ainge seem content to just dink and dunk down the field, and Phil Fulmer is being…..well the normal, boring, uncreative Phil Fulmer. It’s hard to really blame this team for playing with no emotion when their coaches don’t even seem to care what happens (we’ll see how much Fulmer cares when he gets canned in the offseason). Georgia, on the other hand, is playing with the youthful exuberance of their team and their coach. Matt Stafford is a bonafide star in the making, and Mark Richt is finally starting to get his due as a great, not just good, coach (remember, Florida State never struggled offensively until Richt left town). There’s just too much to like about Georgia, and too much to hate about Tennessee. Georgia wins it 21-17.

Oklahoma -11 over Texas

Ugh, can’t say I love this line, but I love Colt McCoy even less. Look, last year Texas got by because the Big 12. They tricked us into thinking Mr. McCoy was the real deal instead of the noodle armed primadonna he’s turned out to be, and now it’s catching up with them. The Longhorns lost three offensive lineman to the NFL, as well as a slew of talent from their defense. But McCoy looked so good, we all just thought he’d carry them. Well he can’t, and Oklahoma is going to make them pay. Oklahoma is a nightmare matchup for Texas. They have a physical offensive line that will wear out the young (and awful) Texas front 7, and the Sooners have a physical secondary that will get in the faces of Limas Sweed and Billy Pittman forcing McCoy to make accurate throws. I know Sam Bradford is coming off of a terrible outing, but consider Bradford the McCoy of 2007. He can just sit back, throw the ball up in the general vicinity of his great receivers, and hope for the best. If he makes a mistake, it’s OK because the rest of his team will bail him out. Both teams are coming off losses and looking to get back on track. Oklahoma has the team to do it, I don’t think Texas does. Oklahoma makes a statement, pasting the Longhorns and all but launching the fire Mack Brown campaign. Call it 40-21 Oklahoma.

@ LSU -7.5 over Florida

At first I thought this line looked a little high. I mean, over a touchdown? Like 4.5 or 5 points would have been just right for LSU. Then I remembered……this game is under the lights in Baton Rouge. That’s worth a field goal right there. There simply is no tougher place to play a sporting event in the world that at LSU on a Saturday night. That place will be rocking. With all due respect to The Swamp, there is no freakin way the LSU fans allow their team to blow this game like the Gator fans did against Auburn. No….freakin……way. Expect the LSU defense to come out flying. LSU has the best front seven in the country and should be able to neutralize the Florida running game without bringing a safety down into the box. Moreover, the Tigers have the PERFECT player to stop Tim Tebow in linebacker Ali Highsmith. Highsmith is an all down linebacker who will most likely key on Tebow every play. Between Highsmith and new 323 fav Danny McRae, LSU boasts too much speed on defense for Florida to have much success running the ball wide. So let’s see, can’t run it outside because of Highsmith and Mcray, and can’t run it inside because of Dorsey, Jackson, and Pittman, that leaves throwing the ball, which, frankly, isn’t Mr. Tebow’s forte. Tebow is at his best when he fakes the run and throws the ball off of play fakes. Tebow has a very long throwing motion, and he doesn’t get a ton of zip on his balls. This is going to allow the LSU defense more time to read and react to his throws. I am very interested to see what Tebow can do when as defense doesn’t bite on his play fakes (the LSU secondary won’t have to), and he’s forced to throw the ball into some tight spots. I don’t think he can get it done, at least not as well as Matt Flynn and Ryan Perriloux will against an already suspect Gator secondary who is playing without its best player. This is a hard fought game, but it’s LSU all the way. The Tigers take it 31-17.

Last Week: 2-3

Season: 11-13-1


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