Posted by Frazier
Not even sure I should give myself credit for last week's pick. Sure, I got it right in regards to the spread, but I couldn't have been more wrong about how the game was played. Still, I did recognize a ridiculous spread, so a win is a win. Since we have several non-Saturday games to pick this week, I don't have huge expectations. So we'll see how it turns out.
Miami +3 vs. BC
It's a Thursday game, meaning my instincts are totally off. This is the definition of a Costanza pick. This line seems way too low, Miami has totally quit on its' coach, and they are coming off a loss to a miserable Virginia squad (I am allowed to bash my alma mater). BC has everything to play for, and for some insane reason Miami is still getting tons of credit at home. Whatever, with my track record the big man would kill me if I picked his beloved Eagles in this one. Let's say the Hurricanes discover a magic fish that grants them three wishes, and they use all three winning this game, 20-17.
Texas -13.5 vs. Texas A&M
Why start backing the Aggies now? I have been saying for weeks they are going to get blown out in one of these games, so they are overdue. Of course, I've been wrong about them all season (except Franchione's ability to choke in big games). I think Texas is out to prove something this week. Unfortunately for them, stomping A&M doesn't actually prove anything since the Big 12 is shit. Oh well, Longhorns roll, 37-20.
Arkansas -1.5 vs. LSU
I've been talking up the Hogs for weeks now, so it makes sense that I like them in this game. LSU hasn't put it together against a big opponent, and I just don't trust them in Fayetteville. No one is playing better than McFadden these days, and he is going to use the national spotlight to shine. As long as Dick doesn't screw this up, the Hogs will take it. I think Dick stays calm, and the Hogs win, 23-17.
Florida -7 AT Florida St.
I initially had this pick the other way. Because, honestly, who is Florida beating soundly? I mean, they have a close scrape virtually every week and are entirely uninspiring. Then I remembered the 'Noles getting rolled by Wake at home, and realized that as weak as Florida has seemed, Florida St. has been infinitely worse. Sometimes, it just doesn't matter that it's a rivalry game. Sometimes, one team is just worse, plain and simple. So the Gators win, and I watch about five minutes of this snoozer, 27-17.
Clemson +2.5 vs. South Carolina
Another mysterious line. I love Spurrier, don't get me wrong, but Clemson has loads of talent, and when they are playing right they can be simply dominant. Also, they are at home. I have memories of them simply taking it to Georgia Tech in Death Valley, and I can just picture them doing it again. The spread essentially makes this one a pick 'em, and even though it kills me to take Tommy Bowden over Spurrier, I really don't have much of a choice. Tommy couldn't take yours'n and beat his'n in this one, but all he has to do is take his'n and beat yours'n, and since he's got the talent, he will. The Tigers win, 24-17.
Boise St. -2.5 AT Nevada
I almost feel like giving a pep talk to the Broncos this week. This is an enormous game for them. I am honestly a little nervous for my boys. But then I remember Ian Johnson is prominently involved. He is going to be huge in this one, and the Broncos are going to be ok. I hope. They win, 35-24.
Maryland vs. Wake Forest (pick 'em)
A second game where I totally changed my mind. And another one featuring ACC teams, mostly because they are generally terrible and I can't trust them. Every time a team starts looking good, they totally shit the bed. As both of these teams did last week. The reason I am picking Maryland is because Wake suffered losses to its' running corps, and I just don't know if they'll have anyone to lug the ball. Without that balance, Wake is cooked. Also, while they have had a great year, I just don't trust them to finish. That can be the hardest part for a team trying to break through. The Terps completely shot themselves in the foot last week, but had been playing very well before that. I think they regain a step, and take this one, 28-24.
USC -6 vs. Notre Dame
Literally, anything could happen in this one. For me, it's pretty simple. I think Notre Dame is secretly lousy. My suspicion is that this game will be like the Fiesta Bowl last year, and they will be totally overwhelmed. They played completely out of their minds last year, converted a miraculous number of third and fourth downs, and still lost that game (although it was damned close). I just feel it will take a similar effort to win this year, and they just don't have it in them. USC is ready to go after a tough challenge last week, and Carroll is undefeated in November. Notre Dame has to remember what it's like to play a legit team. Of course, the Trojans could simply choose not to show up (which they sometimes do) and get way behind early. I have a feeling they manage to focus for long periods of time, and they get the huge win, 38-27.
Last week: 1-0